The warmest years are becoming an ordinary sequence.
What was once an extreme global temperature record is now part of an alarming cluster.
Bad outcome probability
Global mean temperature for 2026 will be at least 1.3°C above the 1850–1900 average.
The relevant climate story is no longer one isolated temperature record. It is the repeated appearance of extraordinarily warm years in a warming world.
A global mean combines enormous regional variation. It should not be confused with local weather or used to claim that every event has a single cause.
Even a small increase in the planetary average can amplify serious risks. Reducing further greenhouse-gas emissions remains a decision about the scale of future harm.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be bad
- Sustained warming raises risks for health, food, water and sensitive ecosystems.
- Possible repercussions
Dangerous heat episodes may become more common for exposed workers and residents.
Warmer conditions may stress water supplies and agriculture in vulnerable regions.
Glaciers and coral ecosystems could face additional long-lived damage.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- Global mean temperature for 2026 will be at least 1.3°C above the 1850–1900 average.
- Time horizon
- Through December 2027
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 94%
- The WMO documented a sequence of exceptionally warm years through 2025.
- What could change the outcome
- Year-to-year natural variability and data-set differences affect a single year’s global estimate.
The evidence.
- State of the Global Climate ↗World Meteorological Organization · 2026