Low-carbon electricity grew faster than demand.
For one consequential year, new clean power more than covered the global increase in electricity consumption.
Good outcome probability
The global share of renewable electricity in 2026 will exceed its share in 2025.
Energy transitions are sometimes assessed by how many megawatts are installed. A more consequential question is what those technologies actually produce.
The IEA estimates that low-emissions generation increased by more than global electricity demand did in 2025. Fossil generation therefore declined in aggregate.
This is a direction, not a finish line. Investment in networks and reliable power will determine whether the shift can continue while electricity demand grows.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be good
- Growing lower-emissions generation can slow expansion of fossil-fuel electricity and support electrification.
- Potential positive outcomes
Coal generation could come under greater pressure where alternatives are connected to the grid.
Countries may have more options for diversifying electricity supplies.
Grid construction and storage choices will determine whether progress endures.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- The global share of renewable electricity in 2026 will exceed its share in 2025.
- Time horizon
- Through December 2027
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 95%
- IEA data indicate renewable and nuclear generation growth exceeded global demand growth in 2025.
- What could change the outcome
- Hydrological conditions, extreme weather and changes in demand could alter the short-term mix.
The evidence.
- Global Energy Review 2026: electricity supply ↗International Energy Agency · 2026