Solar could become the world's second-largest renewable electricity source.
The IEA expects solar generation to surpass wind this year, behind hydropower.
Good outcome probability
Global solar photovoltaic electricity generation in 2026 will exceed global wind electricity generation.
Solar capacity has grown rapidly enough that its influence is now visible in worldwide generation statistics. A new milestone may arrive in the 2026 annual accounting: solar moving ahead of wind in total electricity delivered.
The International Energy Agency's Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 expects solar photovoltaics to add roughly 600 terawatt-hours of generation this year. On that trajectory solar would overtake wind and become the second-largest renewable generator after hydropower. Our assessment concerns the two technologies' worldwide delivered electricity, not capacity nameplates.
The distinction is important. Wind plants often generate power at different times than solar facilities, and both are valuable to a resilient system. If the crossover occurs, it says something about the scale and economics of solar, not that wind power has stopped growing or ceased to matter.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be good
- Solar electricity's growing share may accelerate investment in storage and flexibility.
- Potential positive outcomes
Daytime wholesale power prices could face greater downward pressure.
Storage and demand shifting may become more economically valuable.
Wind remains vital for balancing generation across seasons and hours.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- Global solar photovoltaic electricity generation in 2026 will exceed global wind electricity generation.
- Time horizon
- Calendar 2026 in comparable IEA worldwide generation estimates.
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 97%
- The IEA's mid-year update explicitly projects a solar-over-wind crossover as solar generation grows by around 600 TWh.
- What could change the outcome
- Weather, wind strength, hydrology, grid curtailment and statistical revisions can shift the precise year of the crossover.
The evidence.
- Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 — Executive summary ↗International Energy Agency · 2026
- Global Energy Review 2026 — Solar PV and wind ↗International Energy Agency · 2026