The world is close to a turning point coal once made unthinkable.
Renewable electricity is poised to overtake coal. The energy transition has stopped being a distant promise and become a measurable change in how the planet works.
Good outcome probability
Renewables will generate more electricity worldwide than coal in the full calendar year 2026.
For more than a century, coal defined the electrical age. It lit factories and bedrooms, lifted economies, and filled the atmosphere with the carbon pollution whose consequences will outlast the power stations themselves. Now a remarkable reversal is close: the world may generate more electricity from renewable sources than from coal this year.
This is not a victory announced by an advocacy campaign. The International Energy Agency reports that renewable electricity generation virtually matched coal generation in 2025. Its mid-year forecast projects renewables moving ahead in 2026, driven primarily by solar and wind. The IEA also reports that the combined increase from renewables and nuclear power exceeded the entire growth in global electricity demand in 2025.
The distinction matters. An energy technology can grow rapidly while fossil-fuel generation grows alongside it. Replacing the marginal demand for coal is a different kind of progress: one with the potential to limit future emissions. Still, coal remained the single largest individual source of electricity in 2025. An annual global crossover is not the end of fossil-fuel dependence, nor evidence that the Paris climate goals have been secured.
The remaining obstacles are physical and political. Transmission lines must be built. Storage and flexible demand must expand. Fast-growing economies need affordable, reliable power at every hour of the day. But there is something unprecedented in the numbers: the argument is no longer about whether renewable energy can work at planetary scale. It already does. The question is how quickly humanity chooses to complete the change.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be good
- Coal combustion releases climate-warming carbon dioxide and air pollutants. If rising renewable generation replaces coal-fired power rather than simply meeting new demand, electricity can become cleaner without sacrificing access to energy.
- Potential positive outcomes
Lower emissions from electricity production could help slow the growth of heat-trapping gases, although other sectors would still need to cut pollution.
Communities near fossil-fuel power stations could eventually see cleaner air, provided coal plants actually reduce output or close.
More demand for transmission, storage and flexible grids could accelerate investment in dependable low-carbon electricity; poorly managed transitions could also strain workers and communities.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- Renewables will generate more electricity worldwide than coal in the full calendar year 2026.
- Time horizon
- By December 31, 2026
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 92%
- IEA data show renewables virtually matched coal generation in 2025 and forecast renewable output to overtake coal in 2026, with further growth expected.
- What could change the outcome
- Weather, electricity demand, grid bottlenecks and revisions to annual generation statistics could delay the crossover.
The evidence.
- Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 — Executive summary ↗International Energy Agency · 2026
- Global Energy Review 2026 — Electricity supply ↗International Energy Agency · 2026