Coal’s retreat will be slower if demand keeps climbing.
Clean power can expand quickly while the atmosphere still receives immense fossil-fuel emissions.
Bad outcome probability
Coal will remain a significant source of global electricity production through 2027.
The global energy transition carries two truths at once: renewable generation is growing rapidly, and fossil fuels continue to power vast portions of daily life.
In 2025, coal still supplied a major share of the world’s electricity. A clean-energy milestone does not erase that installed infrastructure overnight.
Decisions about retiring plants, financing grids and protecting workers will determine whether the energy transition is merely visible or sufficiently fast.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be bad
- Continued coal generation releases climate pollution and harmful local air pollutants.
- Possible repercussions
Electricity systems may lock in emissions if new coal assets are financed.
Health burdens can persist near poorly controlled combustion sources.
Countries may face costly stranded assets if technology and climate policies change.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- Coal will remain a significant source of global electricity production through 2027.
- Time horizon
- Through December 2027
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 97%
- IEA reporting says coal remained the world’s largest individual source of electricity in 2025.
- What could change the outcome
- An unexpectedly fast expansion of storage and renewables could accelerate coal’s decline.
The evidence.
- Global Energy Review 2026: electricity supply ↗International Energy Agency · 2026