The numbers are not abstractions. Every increase in a dangerous Ebola outbreak represents additional families at risk and a strained network of medical professionals working amid difficult security conditions.

WHO's October 8 bulletin recorded 8,728 confirmed cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo through October 6, with an average of approximately 72 new confirmed cases a day in the preceding week. The Associated Press reported on October 14 that the cumulative figure had already passed 9,000. Predicting it might cross 9,000 later this month would therefore be obsolete. Our prospective benchmark is instead 10,000 by November 15.

Surveillance measures known cases, not necessarily all infections. As fighting, population movements and fear of medical settings complicate response, slower reporting could create the appearance of improvement before transmission actually falls. The path forward requires accurate testing, infection prevention and safe access to care.