Solar electricity is redrawing the global power map.
The IEA expects solar to power much of the world’s new electricity production, changing the economics of energy.
Good outcome probability
Solar photovoltaic generation will be a larger source of annual global electricity growth than wind in 2026.
Solar’s global advance is not merely a question of ever-cheaper panels. Its consequences extend to the fuel countries purchase, the networks utilities build and the options developing economies have for meeting rising demand.
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year update forecasts around 600 terawatt-hours of additional solar generation in 2026. Yet a projection is not a guarantee of how much fossil generation will actually disappear.
The next decision is infrastructure. Without grids, storage and flexible demand, inexpensive solar electricity can arrive at hours when it is least valuable. Building those systems could transform progress on paper into progress in the atmosphere.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be good
- Solar projects can be built at very different scales, allowing countries to add new generation without constructing a coal plant for each increase in demand.
- Potential positive outcomes
Utilities may build more storage to support midday solar production and evening demand.
Some countries could reduce exposure to imported fossil-fuel price shocks.
Transmission delays and inconsistent policy could slow benefits even when new panels are installed.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- Solar photovoltaic generation will be a larger source of annual global electricity growth than wind in 2026.
- Time horizon
- Through December 2027
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 95%
- IEA mid-year data identify solar as the largest contributor to electricity-supply growth in 2026.
- What could change the outcome
- Weather patterns, curtailment and grid delays could affect the final production totals.
The evidence.
- Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 ↗International Energy Agency · July 2026