America may add substantially more solar capacity than in 2025.
Federal generator inventories point to a large expansion, although planned projects can still miss commissioning dates.
Good outcome probability
New US utility-scale solar photovoltaic capacity brought online in 2026 will exceed the 27.2 GW added in 2025.
The strongest arguments for solar are now backed by equipment and grid statistics, not only ambitions. America's federal energy data show that solar construction has reached a scale few would have expected a decade ago.
The Energy Information Administration reported that developers planned to add 43.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar in 2026 after installing 27.2 gigawatts in 2025. These figures represent planned and realized capacity respectively. We judge it likely that enough projects actually connect this year to beat the 2025 result, while assigning less confidence than the margin between the two totals might suggest.
Capacity is not the same as electricity generated. A project can miss a commissioning date, and a megawatt installed in one region does not produce the same output as a megawatt elsewhere. The eventual verdict requires comparing realized utility-scale additions on an identical basis.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be good
- New solar capacity can diversify electricity supply and support cleaner generation when paired with adequate grid access.
- Potential positive outcomes
More low-emissions power could reach fast-growing demand centers.
Grid planners may confront additional congestion and siting decisions.
Regional construction jobs could rise while some project schedules slip.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- New US utility-scale solar photovoltaic capacity brought online in 2026 will exceed the 27.2 GW added in 2025.
- Time horizon
- By December 31, 2026, measured in EIA generator inventories.
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 97%
- The EIA identified 43.4 GW of planned utility-scale solar additions for 2026 versus 27.2 GW commissioned in 2025.
- What could change the outcome
- Project delays, grid interconnection, supply costs and changing federal incentives may push some planned 2026 installations into 2027.
The evidence.
- New U.S. electric generating capacity expected to reach a record high in 2026 ↗U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-02-20
- Short-Term Energy Outlook — Electricity ↗U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026