Electric mobility has crossed a market threshold.
One in four new cars sold globally in 2025 was electric, according to the IEA.
Good outcome probability
Electric vehicles will account for at least a quarter of new global car sales in calendar 2026.
New technology becomes socially important when it is no longer restricted to pioneers. Electric cars have reached that stage in global sales.
The IEA reports more than twenty million electric cars sold in 2025, although adoption is uneven: China has advanced faster than some other markets.
Sales alone do not establish emissions savings. The electricity mix, vehicle use and manufacturing all matter. Yet the market shift creates choices that were less available only a few years ago.
What this could mean.
- Why this could be good
- More electric vehicles can reduce tailpipe pollution and oil use when replacing combustion-engine driving.
- Potential positive outcomes
Urban street-level exhaust could decline where fleets electrify.
Charging investment may become more viable with more vehicles on the road.
Battery supply chains will need stronger environmental and labor safeguards.
The assessment.
- What we are forecasting
- Electric vehicles will account for at least a quarter of new global car sales in calendar 2026.
- Time horizon
- Through December 2027
- Editorial confidence in the evidence: 90%
- The IEA documents a 25% global electric-car sales share in 2025.
- What could change the outcome
- Policy reversals, economic conditions and battery costs can affect 2026 demand.
The evidence.
- Global EV Outlook 2026: trends in electric cars ↗International Energy Agency · 2026