Electric mobility has crossed a market threshold.
One in four new cars sold globally in 2025 was electric, according to the IEA.
90%Good outcome probability
THEGOOD.
The choices that make a better tomorrow possible.
Evidence-led stories · confidence threshold 85%
Solar electricity is redrawing the global power map.
The IEA expects solar to power much of the world’s new electricity production, changing the economics of energy.
95%Good outcome probability
A malaria vaccine is becoming ordinary childhood care.
A public-health breakthrough becomes more consequential when clinics can deliver it routinely.
94%Good outcome probability
The world is close to a turning point coal once made unthinkable.
Renewable electricity is poised to overtake coal. The energy transition has stopped being a distant promise and become a measurable change in how the planet works.
92%Good outcome probability
We damaged the sky. Then we decided to repair it.
The shrinking Antarctic ozone hole is evidence that nations can respond to planetary danger together—and that decades of persistence can matter.
96%Good outcome probability
A generation of children is beginning to inherit a different future.
Malaria vaccines are entering routine childhood immunization across Africa. The achievement is real; the task of reaching every child is unfinished.
91%Good outcome probability
Humanity has finally drawn a line across the open ocean.
A landmark high-seas biodiversity treaty entered into force in 2026. Its authority exists on paper; its value will be determined in the water.
90%Good outcome probability
The future of the automobile is no longer hypothetical.
One in four new cars sold globally was electric in 2025. The shift is large enough to affect oil demand, industry strategy and national policy.
90%Good outcome probability
THEBAD.
The choices that put our collective future at risk.
Evidence-led stories · confidence threshold 85%
America's debt burden may remain larger than its economy.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects public debt above annual GDP, with consequences for future budget choices.
96%Bad outcome probability
Measles infections could keep climbing in the United States.
The CDC counted 4,080 confirmed cases by October 8, setting a troubling course toward year-end.
94%Bad outcome probability
Atmospheric carbon dioxide may set another annual record.
NOAA's monitoring shows 2026 concentrations above the comparable months of 2025.
99%Bad outcome probability
Congo's Ebola epidemic may pass another devastating threshold.
The 9,000-case threshold has already been reported; the question now is whether confirmed cases will surpass 10,000 by mid-November.
93%Bad outcome probability
The Amazon's October fire count may reach another grim level.
An unusually intense first half of October has already brought smoke, school closures and emergency declarations.
95%Bad outcome probability
Plastic rules are fragmented; the ocean is not.
A failed treaty round leaves countries working against a pollutant without a universal rulebook.
92%Bad outcome probability
Coal’s retreat will be slower if demand keeps climbing.
Clean power can expand quickly while the atmosphere still receives immense fossil-fuel emissions.
97%Bad outcome probability
A funding shortfall can become a child’s missing meal.
Humanitarian assistance runs on budgets, but its consequences are borne by people.
96%Bad outcome probability
The warmest years are becoming an ordinary sequence.
What was once an extreme global temperature record is now part of an alarming cluster.
94%Bad outcome probability
Nine nuclear arsenals, nine decisions to modernize.
Arms control weakens when strategic rivals treat increasingly capable weapons as a permanent answer.
95%Bad outcome probability